Sunday, 24 June, 2018

Indian economy expands 7.7 pc in Q4, 6.7 pc in FY18

“On the domestic front growth should benefit from an acceleration in rural consumption supported by higher minimum support prices and a normal monsoon” Moody’s said India clocks 7.7 per cent GDP growth for Q4FY18
Gerardo Duncan | 04 June, 2018, 11:14

The India GDP growth forecast of 7.5 per cent for 2019-20 is more than a percentage point higher than the 6.4 per cent growth forecast of China.

India's GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent, recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017-2018, shows that the country's economy was on an uptrend, said president of Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) Rashesh Shah on Friday. Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5 percent), manufacturing (9.1 percent) and construction sectors (11.5 percent) contributed to the overall growth.

Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said the constant increasing trend of quarterly GDP numbers in FY18 (at 5.6 per cent, 6.3 per cent, 7 per cent and 7.7 per cent) indicated that the structural reforms undertaken by the government were "now bringing rich dividends".

CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee said, "The significant expansion in GDP print has been powered by a broad-based upturn in farm output, improved manufacturing performance and a vibrant services sector". On a gross value added basis, he expects growth of 7.5 percent, higher than the 7.1 percent median in a Reuters poll for that metric.

"GDP at 2011-12 prices in the fourth quarter (Q4) of financial year 2017-18 registered growth rate of 7.7 per cent as against 5.6 per cent, 6.3 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, in the first three quarters, Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2017-18".

The role of fiscal policy was also clear in government consumption data that saw a growth of 16.8 percent year-on-year. He emphasized that this is the development under leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister Arun Jaitley.

The research also indicated that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) may hamper the growth rate progress for a few quarters, however saying that the drawbacks will gradually moderate. Moreover, the improvement in the construction GVA growth in Q4 FY2018 benefitted from the base effect, given the issues related to demonetisation, including the availability of labour, Nayar said.

Around two-thirds of economists in the poll who answered an extra question said growth would continue at roughly the same pace through the fiscal year that began on April 1. "So we at this moment feel that we should retain (the growth estimate)", he said. The economy, however, got a boost from higher government spending in the March quarter.

DOWNSIDE RISKS: The recovery could be threatened by higher global crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014. The International Monetary Fund expects economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018/19.

He, however, agreed that the recent increase in global oil prices will have certain implications, adding that the downward revision by Moody's was also due to the rising oil prices.

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