Thursday, 15 November, 2018

Iran Claims Its Oil Exports 'Unstoppable'

US issues warning to Russia about helping Iran escape upcoming oil sanctions Saudi business could turn to Russia & China as relations with West sour – analyst
Jodi Jackson | 26 October, 2018, 04:33

Oil fell near the lowest level in 2 months as a rout in USA stocks prompted investors to flee risk assets and as American crude inventories continued to rise.

Oil fell towards $75 a barrel, its lowest since late August, on Wednesday, pressured by concern that demand is weakening and supply ample even as U.S. sanctions loom on oil exporter Iran.

USA sanctions on Iranian oil begin on November 4 and Washington has said it wants to stop all of Tehran's fuel exports, but other oil producers are pumping more to fill any supply gaps.

However, yesterday, oil prices fell almost 3 percent to more than one-month lows after Saudi Arabia said it could supply more crude quickly if needed, easing concerns ahead of USA sanctions on Iran and as US equity markets sold off. Brent crude, used to price worldwide oils, slid 0.4%, to $76.17/Bbl.

The higher crude oil prices at the end of 2018 and in 2019 will likely support increased global crude oil production.

China is Iran's biggest oil customer.

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $81/b in the fourth quarter of 2018, reflecting the recent upward price movement and the possibility that crude oil prices could remain elevated while market participants assess the effects of the sanctions. To get waivers, he said buyers would be required to cut oil imports from Iran by more than the 20% demanded during the Obama administration.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.4 million barrels, EIA said.

"We will meet any demand that materializes", Al-Falih said at the country's signature investment conference, which is being overshadowed by an worldwide outcry over the killing of Saudi government critic Jamal Khashoggi.

"We export as much as two barrels for any barrel that disappeared from Iran recently". "Two of our oil companies have made nominations to purchase Iranian oil in November".

The Opec and non-Opec oil producers, which agreed to relax supply curbs in June, may need to change course because of rising inventories and economic uncertainties, according to a ministerial panel's findings released on Thursday.

Oil prices have rallied this year on expectations that the sanctions will strain supplies by lowering shipments from Iran, OPEC's third-largest oil producer.

"As I have said many times, there is no replacement for Iranian oil in the market", he said. Also, OPEC's September output was 850,000 barrel per day above where it was in May, not including Congo, while Russia's production in September is up 390,000 barrel per day from May, according to Platts survey data.

USA production is projected to increase to 11.7 million barrels per day next year, compared with 10.7 million this year, due to Permian basin production.

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